Raymond James Cuts CMG Price Target to $37

Raymond James reiterates its Outperform rating on Chipotle Mexican Grill with a new price target of $37.00, a 23.84% upside from the current price.

By EarningsIQ Research Desk · Published Oct 16, 2026, 2:15 PM EDT · Updated Oct 16, 2026, 11:15 PM EDT

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Raymond James cut its price target on Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. ($CMG) to $37 from $42.50 on October 16, 2026, and rates the stock "Outperform".

CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

$29.89 -20.27% year to date

Daily close · Oct 16, 2026

Key Points

Raymond James reiterated its Outperform rating on Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. with a price target of $37.00, lowered from $42.50.
Raymond James's $37 price target implies 23.84% upside from Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s ($CMG) current $29.88 share price.
Chipotle shares recently traded around $29.93, which is 30% below the 52-week high of $42.74.
The stock has a P/E ratio of 27.8 and is set to report earnings on October 28, 2026.

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Raymond James reiterated its Outperform rating on Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) on October 16, 2026. The firm set a new price target of $37.00, down from the previous target of $42.50. This change reflects the current market conditions as the stock has been trading below key moving averages.

Analyst rating track record

Raymond James vs. the S&P 500

YTD return -2.84% hypothetical

All-time return -2.84% S&P 500 +1.68%

vs. S&P 500 -4.52% behind the index

Hypothetical returns from Raymond James's disclosed trades, not real profit or advice. How we model this.

Other Institutional Activity in Chipotle Mexican Grill

Several other funds have recently adjusted their positions in Chipotle. Blackrock Inc. grew its holdings by 18,449,342 shares, bringing its total to 129,925,735 shares worth about $3.88 billion. JPMorgan Chase & Co. added 17,020,142 shares, increasing its stake to 66,168,691 shares valued at approximately $1.98 billion. Meanwhile, Vanguard Capital Management LLC trimmed its holdings by 855,173 shares, now holding 83,815,448 shares valued at around $2.51 billion.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Stock Down 2.1%

Chipotle shares recently traded at $29.93, which is below its 50-day moving average of $33.97 and its 200-day average of $34.58. The stock is currently 30% below its 52-week high of $42.74 and about 6.7% above its 52-week low of $28.04. This positioning could indicate potential volatility as the market reacts to the firm's performance and upcoming earnings.

12-month forecast

$CMG price target

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. daily closes and this analyst's $37 target. Not advice.

Recent Earnings

Chipotle reported a trailing twelve-month revenue of approximately $12.42 billion and an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.10. The company has shown strong financial performance, with a net margin of 11.4% and a return on equity (ROE) of 49.6%. The next earnings report is expected on October 28, 2026, which could provide further insights into the company's growth.

Earnings drift grade

Outlook vs expectations on the last report — not price action.

D+ 48/100

Reported Apr 29, 2026

Forward outlook
3 target cuts vs 2 raises.
EPS & revenue
EPS met estimates. Revenue met estimates.
Profit surprise
EBITDA met by 0 percent. Operating income met by 1 percent.
Pre-earnings setup
Expectations were about average.
Analyst signal
1 upgrade, 2 target raises, 3 target cuts.
Earnings quality
Gross margin up 42.2 points. Operating margin down 4.3 points. Positive free cash flow.

Earnings Call Summary

Chipotle reported first-quarter revenue of $3.1 billion, up seven point four percent year over year, with comparable sales growing zero point five percent driven by positive transaction growth. The company benefited from menu innovations including high-protein offerings, Chicken Al Pastor and cilantro-lime sauce, which together contributed meaningful sales lift. Management highlighted strong momentum continuing into April fueled by the new rewards program launch and menu innovation, while noting that the high-efficiency equipment rollout across now over 600 restaurants is generating hundreds of basis points of comparable sales outperformance in those locations.

Guidance Management reaffirmed their full-year comparable sales guidance at about flat but guided the second quarter toward positive one percent comparable sales growth. They expect continued pressure on restaurant margins from ingredient inflation in the second quarter but anticipate that pressure to ease in the second half of the year.

Negative report. Results or guidance disappointed and expectations are likely to move lower.

Insider Buying and Selling at Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Several insiders have sold shares recently. Curtis Evander Garner III, the President, sold 61,077 shares at an average price of $40.01 on February 6, 2026, worth about $2.44 million. Director Patricia D Fili-Krushel sold 3,350 shares at $36.58 on February 24, 2026, totaling approximately $122,543. Officer Matthew R Bush sold 2,675 shares at $35.75 on August 21, 2026, valued at around $95,631.

Analysts Set New Price Targets

On the same day, Raymond James maintained its Outperform rating on Chipotle with a new price target of $37.00. Other analysts have also provided their insights; JP Morgan maintained an Overweight rating with a target of $37.00 on September 29, 2026, while Morgan Stanley kept an Equal-Weight rating with a target of $40.00 on October 15, 2026. Currently, the consensus from analysts suggests a mean price target of about $43.73 based on 31 opinions, indicating potential upside from the recent trading levels.

About Chipotle Mexican Grill

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. operates a chain of restaurants that serve Mexican-inspired food, including burritos, tacos, and salads. The company emphasizes responsibly sourced ingredients, catering to a growing demand for sustainable dining options. With over 140,000 employees, Chipotle has positioned itself as a significant player in the fast-casual dining sector.

Bottom Line

Investors should watch for Chipotle's upcoming earnings report on October 28, 2026, which could offer more details about its financial health and market position. The recent adjustments in analyst ratings and targets reflect the current challenges and opportunities facing the company.