@oguzerkan

Active since Dec 2025 · 227 directional calls across 41 tickers

YTD return
+9.72%
187 picks this year
Lifetime return
+7.87%
$227,000 simulated invested
Win rate
51%
across directional calls
Best call
$NBIS +159%
"Posted great results again"
Worst call
$ARM -117%
"Next 5-6 years fully priced in"
Avg pick return
+7.87%
mean across graded calls

$META

First call Dec 2025 · last call Jun 2026

$595.39 as of Jun 16
+1.83% 16 calls
+1.10% 17 calls
  • Bullish
  • Bearish

Calls on $META

  1. @oguzerkan · Bullish

    $META bears think it won’t be able to generate ROI on its AI capex. Meanwhile Jensen Huang: “Nobody uses AI better than $META.” Period. https://t.co/eFsDdME4sF

  2. @oguzerkan · Bullish

    Zuck says $META can create a cloud business if it overspends on compute. Data centers aren’t coming online fast enough as only 17% planned projects have secured power. $META can easily monetize its compute in this environment. Bullish on $META. Still at 19x forward earnings. https://t.co/2CdxDTKrHN https://t.co/t2PLRbXMrz

  3. @oguzerkan · Bullish

    $META bears say $125 billion AI capex could be the mistake of the decade. Meanwhile Zuckerberg: "Underspending and losing the AI race is a bigger risk than overspending and losing some money." Simple. https://t.co/xzVd4qGDlf https://t.co/dmBYavP8Tp

  4. @oguzerkan · Bullish

    $META bears: There is no way $META can generate a decent ROI on AI capex. Are you aware that SpaceX just sold compute capacity to Anthropic? In the worst case, $META can monetize its compute at a hefty premium to cost, as it will have the largest training cluster by year-end. https://t.co/sEU1bXi3G7

  5. @oguzerkan · Bullish

    Even NBA players think $META AI capex is the bear thesis... Bill Ackman: “If a company is increasing growth capex while earning above average returns, you should applaud.” That simple. https://t.co/9Vg0J2gPaL https://t.co/wmeVDlljiT

  6. @oguzerkan · Bullish

    $META trading at 18x forward earnings while growing +20% YoY… What’s the bear thesis here? Really? https://t.co/wvLMmcdk4z

  7. @oguzerkan · Bullish

    I’m surprised to see not that many fund managers bought $META last quarter. It’s probably the easiest buy among the mega-caps right now. Higher inflation is coming, and it will likely be a global phenomenon because of the Iran war. $META’s ad business has enormous pricing https://t.co/8WVqDMeJKH

  8. @oguzerkan · Bullish

    $META at 15x 2027 earnings is a buying opportunity regardless of what doomers say. It’s now top pick at Morgan Stanley. There are two things pressing the stock down now: - Elevated capex - Social media addiction cases Elevated capex is not a problem as almost all of it is https://t.co/Ty8WOFFksN

  9. @oguzerkan · Bullish

    Mark Zuckerberg: “$META is ready to spend $600 billion through 2028 because the next platform shift will be owned by whoever builds the most capable AI infrastructure fastest.” Of course there is a risk of overbuilding, but at this stage the risk of underbuilding is far larger https://t.co/mvmOKa4cwa

  10. @oguzerkan · Bullish

    Bill Ackman: “If a company is increasing growth capex while earning above average returns, you should applaud.” This is the case for $META. All hyperscalers are generating solid sales growth, but $META is seeing tangible ROI in the form of higher ad conversions. Long $META. https://t.co/ES4mJpBWWt

  11. @oguzerkan · Bullish

    People never change.. Last year everybody was talking about why $META deserved a higher price. Now everybody is talking about why $META deserves a lower price. Price drives the sentiment. I’m at the same point: $META will be wildly more valuable in a few years. We’ll see.

  12. @oguzerkan · Bullish

    Does doomsaying ever get old? $META can compress to any multiple because of the sentiment. It compressed to 11x earnings in 2022. Yet, all this news is immaterial to the business in the long term. It’s not the first time a mega-cap is hit by a lawsuit. What I bet on is that https://t.co/WgJHutXKXI

  13. @oguzerkan · Bullish

    What’s happening with $META? There are two things weighing on the stock right now: - Concerns about skyrocketing capex. - Delays in the launch of new AI model. Neither of these materially change the outlook and the stock is undervalued here. Yes, capex is elevated but they https://t.co/yhFDUIyHpk

  14. @oguzerkan · Bullish

    $META efficiency gain from AI is just insane. $GS predicts that $META will finish this year with just 67,000 employees. For reference, they had around 86,000 employees at the end of 2022. They are seeing very strong ROI from AI investments both in terms of developer https://t.co/E6PMO5U8iG https://t.co/5CjM44pjXH

  15. @oguzerkan · Bullish

    2. $META 5-Year Revenue CAGR: 18.5% Forward P/E: 19 ROIC: 28% $META is the cheapest mega-cap stock now. Investors are selling it as it guided 2026 capex to be 2x that of 2025. I don't think it's justified. $META is the only hyperscaler that is currently seeing positive https://t.co/Q0JZ0l6Cxe

  16. @oguzerkan · Bullish

    $META is obvious. No threat from AI, only upside. Historically, the stock performed very well every time after it dipped below 20x forward earnings. I think Bill Ackman acquired the position gradually around 19x-20x forward earnings. This means that the current price is still https://t.co/VJRypCY52b

  17. @oguzerkan · Bullish

    Satya Nadella said a few months ago that AI models are getting commoditized, and you need an integrated stack to succeed: Infrastructure-models-products. $META acquiring Manus proves this notion. $META had the infrastructure and models but lacked a dedicated consumer-facing AI https://t.co/uzpjmdpZ6M

Latest calls

  1. $META · Bullish

    $META bears think it won’t be able to generate ROI on its AI capex. Meanwhile Jensen Huang: “Nobody uses AI better than $META.” Period. https://t.co/eFsDdME4sF

  2. $NU · Bullish

    $NU Revenues have grown by almost 10x since 2021. Stock? Up 5%.. Buy when the stock lags fundamentals. https://t.co/sCol8O9XcG

  3. $NBIS · Bullish

    Jensen Huang: “Nebius will take care of you.” $NBIS +198% YTD Thank you Jensen. https://t.co/cCoq62cOTs

  4. $FLNC · Bullish

    $FLNC has officially doubled since I wrote about it in October. Now up 483% past year. This could be just the beginning as it now sits inside $NVDA’s reference architecture for next-gen data centers. What do you think will happen if hyperscalers embrace it? $FLNC goes brrr.. https://t.co/PkIM3kIdoY

  5. $FLNC · Bullish

    Siemens, NVIDIA, and Fluence have developed a reference architecture for next-gen data centers. This is insanely bullish for $FLNC. $FLNC is no longer being positioned as a generic battery supplier as it now sits inside $NVDA reference architecture. The architecture aims to https://t.co/2vuw1mnbSa https://t.co/FqMtfNcI6O

Risk read

  • No major grifter signals detected.
Score breakdown
  • low win rate48.9
  • concentration0.0
  • young account0.0
  • outlier dependency0.0